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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."